Question

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

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Total Forecasters44

Community Prediction

99%

(96% - 99.9%)

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community: 99%

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Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 14, 2024

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If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

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Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 14, 2024

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•Jun 23, 2025

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If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

75%