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10
20 forecasters
3
10 comments
20 forecasters
2024 Electoral Consequences
condition

2024 US Presidential Election Winner?

Resolved:Yes
20 forecasters
if yes
if no

New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?

54%
54%

New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?

40%
40%
Resolved:Annulled
if Yes54%
if No40%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

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13 comments63 forecasters

New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?

55%chance
20 comments47 forecasters

Nuclear States in 2030

950%
1033%
115%
81%
3 others
3 comments30 forecasters

Trump admin withdraw arms control agreements in 2026?

50%chance
35 comments139 forecasters

Trump wins Peace Prize before 2029?

0.5%chance
0 comments31 forecasters

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation before the following years?

20272%
20283%
20305%
75 comments183 forecasters

Trump in power beyond 2028?

2.5%chance
15 comments95 forecasters

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action revived by December 2028?

50%chance
0 comments35 forecasters

Taiwan Nuclear Conflict

20353%
20302%