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3 comments
15 forecasters

How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025?

1result: Yes
5result: No
4result: No
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:Dec 11, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 1, 2025
Effective Institutions Project
AI Safety
Economy & Business
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
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Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind
20%
Microsoft
4%
xAI
3%
14 others
95 forecasters

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

40% chance
44

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

2025
No
2030
16%
2035
25%
1 other
22 forecasters
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