126 comments
224 forecasters
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
0.1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 13, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 17, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 16, 2023
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
2% chance
195
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
2.5% chance
409
Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?
99% chance
106