Question

Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?

Resolved:Yes

64 comments64

Total Forecasters731

Community Prediction

99.5%

(98% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.5%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

22.3

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2024

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

S&P 500 returns to all-time high — right where it started at the outset of Trump's second term

NBC•Jun 27, 2025

US stock futures rise on trade deals. S&P 500 and Nasdaq to test record highs.

USA Today•Jun 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2024

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

S&P 500 returns to all-time high — right where it started at the outset of Trump's second term

NBC•Jun 27, 2025

US stock futures rise on trade deals. S&P 500 and Nasdaq to test record highs.

USA Today•Jun 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the following dates?

6210

Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?

20%