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13
458
forecasters
13
13 comments
458 forecasters
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
2 more...
Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?
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42 comments
218 forecasters
OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?
1%
chance
15 comments
41 forecasters
Leading Lab No Safety
2026
result:
Yes
2030
28%
2036
20%
6 comments
97 forecasters
Will OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet CEO pledge AI autonomy limits before 2027?
10%
chance
10 comments
41 forecasters
Number of New Leading AI Labs
0 or 1
49.8%
2 or 3
32.9%
4 or 5
11.9%
6 or 7
3.2%
2 others
5 comments
37 forecasters
AI alignment experts consider alignment techniques enough?
Current estimate
19.8%
7 comments
113 forecasters
Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?
44%
chance
5 comments
29 forecasters
OpenAI Triggers 'Assist Clause'
2031
8%
2026
result:
No
3 comments
50 forecasters
AI labs collaborate at least a little on safety in 2030?
11%
chance