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61 comments
497 forecasters

Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?

1%chance
1%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:Jan 1, 2024
Closes:Nov 30, 2024
Resolved:Dec 23, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2024
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Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

20% chance
26

Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?

10% chance
249

When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?

01 Mar 2026
(26 Oct 2025 - 26 Feb 2027)
01 Mar 2026
(26 Oct 2025 - 26 Feb 2027)
57 forecasters
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