16 comments
415 forecasters
Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Authors:
Opened:Jan 1, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 7, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2024
Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
35% chance
35
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?
1% chance
139
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
10% chance
2.1k