Question

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Resolved :No

16 comments16

Total Forecasters411

Community Prediction

(0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

92.0

Community Peer Score

39.6

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2024

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

35.1%

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

59%

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