48 comments
477 forecasters
Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 1, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 5, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2024
Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?
40% chance
82
Will the Vice President be sworn in as President after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029?
20% chance
50
Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?
5% chance
123