S&P Goes Up In 2024?

condition

Fed Funds Rate Below 4%?

Resolved:No

27 forecasters

if yes

if no

S&P Goes Up In 2024?

95%

Resolved:Annulled

S&P Goes Up In 2024?

95%

Resolved:Yes

1 1 comment

27 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Fed Funds Rate Below 4%?	S&P Goes Up In 2024?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 95%

What was the final result? Yes

Community Peer Score

18.9

Community Baseline Score

63.3

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Dec 31, 2024

Conditional Cup

Economy & Business

🏆 2024 Leaderboard

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Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Dec 31, 2024

Conditional Cup

Economy & Business

🏆 2024 Leaderboard

The Fed has cut rates with the S&P 500 at a record four times before. Here's what happened next

CNBC•Oct 29, 2025

What Prediction Markets Are Saying About Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

Forbes•Oct 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

98% chance

1.6k

What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years?

Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025?

95% chance

129