Question

Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?

Resolved:Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction

81%

(65% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 81%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

0.5

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 14, 2024

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If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

75%

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

20 Feb 2025

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99.5%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 14, 2024

Artificial Intelligence

The coder 'village' at heart of China's latest AI frenzy

•Jul 6, 2025

The coder 'village' at heart of China's latest AI frenzy

•Jul 6, 2025

The coders’ ‘village’ at the heart of China’s AI frenzy

•Jul 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

75%

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

20 Feb 2025

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99.5%