Question

Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?

Resolved:Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction

81%

(65% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 81%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

0.5

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 14, 2024

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If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

75%

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

20 Feb 2025

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99.5%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 14, 2024

Artificial Intelligence

AlixPartners 2025 Global Automotive Outlook: China’s “New Operating Model” Redefines Speed, Efficiency, and Market Leadership in Automotive Industry

•Jul 4, 2025

Chinese tech firms gaining fast on Silicon Valley in AI race: report

New York Post•Jul 3, 2025

Today’s AI Could Make Pandemics 5 Times More Likely

Time•Jul 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

75%

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

20 Feb 2025

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99.5%