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5 comments
48 forecasters

Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?

1%chance
1%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline
Authors:
will_aldred
Opened:Jan 11, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 17, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 14, 2024
Chinese AI Chips
AI in China
Technology
Geopolitics
Computing and Math
2024 Leaderboard
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Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

0.6% chance
45

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH
27%
Microsoft Azure
5%
Amazon Web Services
5%
1 other
38 forecasters

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

65% chance
80
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