58 forecasters

Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?

1%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:

Opened:

Jan 30, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 2, 2024

Economy & Business

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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3 things we learned from OpenAI's report on how people use ChatGPT

Business Insider•Sep 15, 2025

ChatGPT is being trained to flag suicidal youths to authorities following teen death, CEO announces

New York Post•Sep 11, 2025

ChatGPT may start alerting authorities about youngsters considering suicide, says CEO

Guardian•Sep 11, 2025

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Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?