10 comments
32 forecasters
Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?
90%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 90% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 15, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Resolved:Jan 20, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 18, 2024
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On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
2.8×10²⁵ FLOP
(4.8×10²⁴ - 3.4×10²⁶)
2.8×10²⁵ FLOP
(4.8×10²⁴ - 3.4×10²⁶)
24 forecasters
When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?
14 Feb 2025
(30 May 2024 - 05 Feb 2026)
14 Feb 2025
(30 May 2024 - 05 Feb 2026)
8 forecasters
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
90 forecasters