Question

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Resolved:Annulled

10 comments10

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

90%

(82% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Feb 15, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 18, 2024

Regulation of AI

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Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Checking In on AI and the Big Five

•Jun 23, 2025

How We’ll Reach a 1 Trillion Transistor GPU

•Jun 20, 2025

A timeline of the US semiconductor market in 2025

TechCrunch•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3.1×10²⁵

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

02 Jan 2025

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

5.9×10²⁶

Authors:

odelaney PeterWildeford

Opened:

Feb 15, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 18, 2024

Regulation of AI

Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Checking In on AI and the Big Five

•Jun 23, 2025

How We’ll Reach a 1 Trillion Transistor GPU

•Jun 20, 2025

A timeline of the US semiconductor market in 2025

TechCrunch•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3.1×10²⁵

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

02 Jan 2025

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

5.9×10²⁶