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21 comments
73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%
Saudi Arabia2%
Ukraine1%
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Authors:
Dumbledores_Army
Opened:Feb 7, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Geopolitics
Independent logo
Robodogs, laser beams and drone-zapping microwaves: The weapons that will decide the wars of the future
Independent•Sep 13, 2025
Daily Mail logo
NATO races to defend eastern flank as Putin begins nuclear missile and military drills - with British 'assets' sent to protect borders from Russian invasion
Daily Mail•Sep 12, 2025
Newsweek logo
NATO Not Prepared for 'Large-Scale' Putin Attack as Drone Wall Gathers Pace
Newsweek•Sep 12, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran
63%
Saudi Arabia
14%
South Korea
9%
7 others
109 forecasters

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

2023
9576
2025
9464
2032
10.1k
2 others
87 forecasters

What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

2023
3.96
2025
4.22
2032
6.16
2 others
92 forecasters
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