133 forecasters

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

0.1%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 4, 2024

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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