9 comments
63 forecasters
Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee?
10%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 10% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 15, 2016
Closes:Jun 6, 2016
Resolved:Jul 27, 2016
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 15, 2016
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?
174 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
43 forecasters
Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?
70% chance
993