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Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee?
As of April 15, the delegate counts in the US Democratic Primary Race (excluding superdelegates) are 1307 for Clinton and 1097 for Sanders, per fivethirtyeight; this page also outlines the route to nomination for both candidates.
Clinton is in a solid lead, though Sanders arguably has the momentum, having won the last 7 primaries, per the records of the NY times. (This streak is likely to end with New York.)
The proportional nature of the Democratic primaries creates a difficult path for Sanders; on the other hand low favorability ratings and persistent questions about the email scandal continue to dog Clinton.
Everyone's got an opinion on this race, and here we ask:
Will Sanders be the Democratic Nominee?
This is the first part of a two-part experiment in "metaknowledge." In the second one, we ask what you think the Metaculus community prediction on this question will be (this is the reason the community prediction is hidden from view until question closing.) While of course not obligatory, it will aid in this experiment if you answer both questions. (CLICK HERE for second one.)
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.