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Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee?


As of April 15, the delegate counts in the US Democratic Primary Race (excluding superdelegates) are 1307 for Clinton and 1097 for Sanders, per fivethirtyeight; this page also outlines the route to nomination for both candidates.

Clinton is in a solid lead, though Sanders arguably has the momentum, having won the last 7 primaries, per the records of the NY times. (This streak is likely to end with New York.)

The proportional nature of the Democratic primaries creates a difficult path for Sanders; on the other hand low favorability ratings and persistent questions about the email scandal continue to dog Clinton.

Everyone's got an opinion on this race, and here we ask:

Will Sanders be the Democratic Nominee?

This is the first part of a two-part experiment in "metaknowledge." In the second one, we ask what you think the Metaculus community prediction on this question will be (this is the reason the community prediction is hidden from view until question closing.) While of course not obligatory, it will aid in this experiment if you answer both questions. (CLICK HERE for second one.)

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.