14 comments
95 forecasters
Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?
94%chance
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Feb 6, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2028
Scheduled resolution:Dec 1, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 9, 2024
How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?
32 members
(31.7 - 32.4)
32 members
(31.7 - 32.4)
124 forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30% chance
33
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
33 forecasters