Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)

conditional

condition

AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?

Resolved:No

18 forecasters

if yes

if no

Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)

20%

Resolved:Annulled

Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)

20%

Resolved:Yes

4 comments4

Make a Prediction

AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?	Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 20%

What was the final result? Yes

Community Baseline Score

-142.2

Community Peer Score

26.4

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Conditional Cup

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2024 Leaderboard

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

31%

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jan 1, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Conditional Cup

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2024 Leaderboard

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

31%