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4
18
forecasters
2
4 comments
18 forecasters
Conditional Cup
3 more...
condition
AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?
Resolved:
No
18 forecasters
if yes
if no
Frontier Open-Source AI?
20%
20%
Resolved:
Annulled
Frontier Open-Source AI?
20%
20%
Resolved:
Yes
Follow
share
embed
if Yes
20%
if No
(Yes)
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (4)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
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AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
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AI resolving questions on Metaculus
2025
result:
No
2030
70%
2035
91%
2040
90%
2050
96%
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IMO AI Prize
2026
78%
2027
17%
2028 or later
3%
2024 or before
result:
No
2025
result:
No
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143 forecasters
AI Competency on Competitive Programming
Current estimate
10 Oct 2027
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168 forecasters
AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?
98%
chance
4 comments
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Open-source AI regulation 2028
33%
chance
4 comments
62 forecasters
Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?
75%
chance
5 comments
29 forecasters
OpenAI Triggers 'Assist Clause'
2031
8%
2026
result:
No