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7
121 forecasters
24
7 comments
121 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Resolved:No
121 forecasters
if yes
if no

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

17%
17%
Resolved:Annulled

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

50%
50%
Resolved:No
if Yes17%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

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16 comments161 forecasters

Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

61%chance
11 comments240 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

Gavin Newsom26.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10.4%
Pete Buttigieg7.4%
Other43.5%
4 others
5 comments50 forecasters

Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party59.9%
Republican Party40%
Other0.1%
14 comments247 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?

JD Vance44.8%
Ron DeSantis4.7%
Marco Rubio17.7%
Other27%
4 others
0 comments30 forecasters

Democrat wins 2026 gubernatorial election in these states?

Ohio44.5%
Nevada53%
Kansas34%
Iowa58%
13 others
2 comments93 forecasters

Markets give >20% to a twice-elected president's renomination in these years?

2021-2022result: No
2023-2024result: No
2025-20264%
2027-202815%
0 comments54 forecasters

Democrat Wins 2026 Senate Election in these states?

Georgia83%
Iowa37.5%
Maine70%
Michigan74%
19 others
7 comments24 forecasters

Will the next U.S. President have a beard or mustache?

10%chance