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7
121
forecasters
24
7 comments
121 forecasters
Conditional Cup
3 more...
condition
2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee?
Resolved:
No
121 forecasters
if yes
if no
Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
17%
17%
Resolved:
Annulled
Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
50%
50%
Resolved:
No
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if Yes
17%
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16 comments
161 forecasters
Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
61%
chance
11 comments
240 forecasters
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?
Gavin Newsom
25.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10.4%
Pete Buttigieg
7.2%
Other
44.1%
4 others
5 comments
50 forecasters
Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Democratic Party
59.9%
Republican Party
40%
Other
0.1%
15 comments
247 forecasters
Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?
JD Vance
46%
Ron DeSantis
4.4%
Marco Rubio
19.3%
Other
24.7%
4 others
0 comments
30 forecasters
Democrat wins 2026 gubernatorial election in these states?
Ohio
44.5%
Nevada
53%
Kansas
34%
Iowa
57%
13 others
2 comments
93 forecasters
Markets give >20% to a twice-elected president's renomination in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
4%
2027-2028
15%
0 comments
54 forecasters
Democrat Wins 2026 Senate Election in these states?
Georgia
83%
Iowa
38.2%
Maine
70%
Michigan
75%
19 others
7 comments
24 forecasters
Will the next U.S. President have a beard or mustache?
10%
chance