Question

Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction13%

Make a Prediction

community: 12.6%

median 12.6%mean 17.8%

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

Fujian

People's Liberation Army

China

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis

First Taiwan Strait Crisis

Taiwan

Kinmen

Matsu Islands

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

35%

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

Fujian

People's Liberation Army

China

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis

First Taiwan Strait Crisis

Taiwan

Kinmen

Matsu Islands

Most Taiwanese believe China unlikely to invade in coming five years, poll shows

NBC•Oct 9, 2024

Poll: Most Taiwanese Would Fight Chinese Invasion, but Only Half Expect America to Help

Breitbart•Oct 11, 2024

China Stages Blockade of Taiwan

Newsweek•Oct 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

35%