Question

Metaknowledge Experiment Part B: What is the Metaculus community's prediction about Bernie Sanders?

Resolved:Ambiguous

6 comments6

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction

15%

(10% - 28%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

gmusser

Opened:

Apr 15, 2016

Closes:

Jun 8, 2016

Resolves:

Aug 23, 2016

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 15, 2016

Elections

Politics

2016 Leaderboard

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

32%

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

59%

Authors:

gmusser

Opened:

Apr 15, 2016

Closes:

Jun 8, 2016

Resolves:

Aug 23, 2016

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 15, 2016

Elections

Politics

2016 Leaderboard

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

32%

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

59%