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Metaknowledge Experiment Part B: What is the Metaculus community's prediction about Bernie Sanders?


In part A of this question, we asked whether you think Sanders will be the Democratic Nominee.

Now we'd like you to take a step back and estimate what you think OTHER people will say. This is part of an experiment to see how well people gauge one another's opinions, especially in an age when we have little personal contact with those we disagree with.

Here, your goal is to "predict" what the Metaculus community prediction is right now as to whether Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee. Just dial in the percentage that you think is what other people think. We've hidden the community prediction for both parts A and B until question close.

This question will close at the same time as part A; it will help the experiment if you make a prediction in both questions.

(While the scoring of Part A is as usual, the scoring method for this question is to-be-determined.)

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.