101 forecasters

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

15%chance

4 pp this week

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 17, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 20, 2024

WW3 Watch: Russia 'Gambling With War' Says EU

Breitbart•Oct 13, 2025

NATO is not prepared for war

Al Jazeera•Oct 12, 2025

UK, US, NATO flew 12-hour patrol on Russian border amid Ukraine war

Al Jazeera•Oct 11, 2025

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