13
72 forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
60%chance
20% this week
Top Key Factors
Serious warnings from European intelligence and other top brass
Increases Likelihood
Russian drones violated Polish airspace
Increases Likelihood
2026 Leipzig Airport drone attack - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org•Aug 3, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Russia preparing possible ‘provocation’ in Baltic states or Poland, sources sayGuardian•Jun 27, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Serious warnings from European intelligence and other top brass
Increases Likelihood
Russian drones violated Polish airspace
Increases Likelihood
2026 Leipzig Airport drone attack - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org•Aug 3, 2026
Increases Likelihood
Russia preparing possible ‘provocation’ in Baltic states or Poland, sources sayGuardian•Jun 27, 2026
Increases Likelihood