Question
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
Total Forecasters37
Community Prediction25%
Make a Prediction
median 25.0%mean 32.4%
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Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
80%
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
61.5%
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?
3%
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
80%
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
61.5%
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?
3%