Question

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

11
5
Total Forecasters38
Community Prediction
30%
(8% - 61%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 30%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
PeterWildeford
Opened:Mar 6, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2031
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 9, 2024
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Robotics
Tesla
Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System
Machine learning
Anthropic principle
Boeing
Information technology