Question

Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?

Resolved:Yes

4 comments4

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction

90%

(77% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

0.3

Community Baseline Score

0.8

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2024

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

US and Russia Reveal Nuclear Submarine Movements in Pacific

Newsweek•Sep 2, 2025

Nuclear bomb-building plan faces sweeping Energy Department review

USA Today•Aug 29, 2025

Is Nuclear Disarmament on Cards For Russia, China, North Korea?

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

76%

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2024

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

US and Russia Reveal Nuclear Submarine Movements in Pacific

Newsweek•Sep 2, 2025

Nuclear bomb-building plan faces sweeping Energy Department review

USA Today•Aug 29, 2025

Is Nuclear Disarmament on Cards For Russia, China, North Korea?

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

76%