Question

Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?

Resolved:Yes

4 comments4

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction

90%

(77% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

0.3

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2024

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Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

70%

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2024

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

US Military Issues Update on China's Rocket Force Threat

Newsweek•Jun 30, 2025

China's Rival Receives Anti-Ship Boost From US

Newsweek•Jun 30, 2025

Will The US Finally Pivot To China?

Daily Caller•Jun 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

70%