Question
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?
Resolved:YesTotal Forecasters86
Community Prediction
99%
(98% - 99.9%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?Yes
Community Peer Score
9.8
Community Baseline Score
88.5
Authors:
Opened:Mar 21, 2024
Closes:Jul 30, 2025
Resolves:Jul 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 24, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Mar 21, 2024
Closes:Jul 30, 2025
Resolves:Jul 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 24, 2024