5 comments
44 forecasters
Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
3%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 18, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 23, 2024
Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?
20% chance
41
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?
27 forecasters
If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?
76% chance
24