11 comments
38 forecasters
If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?
66%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 18, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 23, 2024
