Question

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

1
2
Total Forecasters16
Community Prediction
70%
(50% - 88%)

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50%
community: 70%
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Authors:
will_aldred
Opened:Apr 18, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 23, 2024
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks