Question
If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?
Total Forecasters23
Community Prediction
75%
(60% - 88%)
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 18, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 23, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?
75%
Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?
Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?
20%
Authors:
Opened:Apr 18, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 23, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?
75%
Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?
Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?
20%