• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
11 forecasters
1
0 comments
11 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

US TikTok ban or forced sale?

Resolved:Yes
11 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China AI Treaty?

1%
1%
Resolved:No

US-China AI Treaty?

5%
5%
Resolved:Annulled
if No5%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestionsTournamentsTournaments for AI botsFutureEval
ServicesLaunch a TournamentPrivate InstancesPro Forecasters
CompanyAboutCareersFAQ
ResourcesForecasting ResourcesFor JournalistsAPI
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
1 comment31 forecasters

US-China AI Treaty

204045%
203536%
203012%
2025result: No
2 comments24 forecasters

US-China AI Treaty?

2025result: No
203015%
203525%
204036%
5 comments144 forecasters

US and China reach an agreement to limit frontier AI development before 2029?

9%chance
21 comments110 forecasters

US-China AGI-limiting treaty signed before 2030?

5%chance
0 comments48 forecasters

US-China Bilateral Trade Agreement in 2026?

38%chance
6 comments111 forecasters

US government control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

23%chance
21 comments813 forecasters

ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?

21%chance
7 comments99 forecasters

US gov veto on frontier AI deployment by 2028?

30%chance