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11
forecasters
1
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11 forecasters
Conditional Cup
6 more...
condition
US TikTok ban or forced sale?
Resolved:
Yes
11 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China AI Treaty?
1%
1%
Resolved:
No
US-China AI Treaty?
5%
5%
Resolved:
Annulled
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if No
5%
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1 comment
31 forecasters
US-China AI Treaty
2040
45%
2035
36%
2030
12%
2025
result:
No
2 comments
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US-China AI Treaty?
2025
result:
No
2030
15%
2035
25%
2040
36%
5 comments
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US and China reach an agreement to limit frontier AI development before 2029?
9%
chance
21 comments
110 forecasters
US-China AGI-limiting treaty signed before 2030?
5%
chance
0 comments
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US-China Bilateral Trade Agreement in 2026?
38%
chance
6 comments
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US government control of any US AI company or project before 2029?
23%
chance
21 comments
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ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?
21%
chance
7 comments
99 forecasters
US gov veto on frontier AI deployment by 2028?
30%
chance