Question
When will an AI agent be able to win Portal 2 on its first run?
Total Forecasters18
Community Prediction
30 Jul 2029
(01 Mar 2027 - Apr 2033)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 01 Mar 2027 | — |
| median | 30 Jul 2029 | — |
| upper 75% | Apr 2033 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2040 | 3.3% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 24, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:May 27, 2024
When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?
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28 Feb 2026
When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?
31 Jan 2026
Authors:
Opened:May 24, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:May 27, 2024
When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?
Dec 2033
When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?
28 Feb 2026
When will an AI be able to play Angry Birds at a level exceeding that of the best human players?
31 Jan 2026