Question
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?
Total Forecasters59
Community Prediction
0.9%
(0.1% - 1%)
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 21, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 24, 2024
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?
80%
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?
99%
Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?
28.7%
Authors:
Opened:Mar 21, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 24, 2024
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?
80%
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?
99%
Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?
28.7%