3 comments
15 forecasters
Will the AI's major professional society take a position on "killer robots"?
17%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 17% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 8, 2015
Closes:Jan 1, 2016
Resolved:Feb 18, 2016
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 10, 2015
Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?
7% chance
48
Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?
80% chance
59
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?
59% chance
79