exploring intelligent predictions exploring contingent understanding composing precise contingencies delivering critical insights computing contingent wisdom mapping the future formulating predictive forecasts aggregating definitive contingencies delivering critical forecasts crowdsourcing definitive insights aggregating precise estimations modeling intelligent futures computing critical futures assembling critical estimations

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the AI's major professional society take a position on "killer robots"?

There has been significant interest in the imminent advent of autonomous lethal weapons, which would select, engage, and harm targets that they have chosen according to some pre-assigned mission or criteria. Most major military powers formally claim to eschew such weapons, but there is little question that they are under active development.

A recent open letter signed by over 3000 AI researchers has argued that an arms race in autonomous offensive weapons would likely lead to their widespread use and that “Autonomous weapons are ideal for tasks such as assassinations, destabilizing nations, subduing populations and selectively killing a particular ethnic group.” The letter calls for an international agreement pre-emptively banning such weapons.

Several advocacy groups including the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots have also called for such a ban, and the issue has been discussed at the UN, most recently at a meeting on the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons.

Although there appears to be strong support in the AI research community to avoid such an arms race, there is an active debate, with some arguing against such a ban.

The Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), the major professional organization for AI researchers, has discussed the issue at past meetings, and hosted a debate in 2015 regarding these weapons. But the AAAI as an organization has not taken any formal position on autonomous weapons.

When the AAAI next meets in February 12-17 2016, will it vote on and adopt a formal position (of any sort) on autonomous weapons?

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.