Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

condition

Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030)

14 forecasters

if yes

if no

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

26%

Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)

11%

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14 forecasters

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Taiwan Undersea Cables Cut (2030)	Taiwan Semiconductor Wafers Lost To Attack (1M / year)
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 26%

if Yes

if No

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jun 30, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

60% chance

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jun 30, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

60% chance