27 comments
154 forecasters
What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Apr 10, 2024
Closes:May 31, 2024
Resolved:Jun 21, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 13, 2024
On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?
52 forecasters
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
860 forecasters
Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?
4% chance
261