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Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?
Trends in global surface temperature are one of the most widely used metrics used to understand global climate change, along with atmospheric CO2 levels and sea levels. Anomolous surface warming has risen steadily to roughly 0.8°C from the global mean surface air temperature between 1951 and 1980 (the mean being 14°C / 57°F - why this period?), and there are a number of climate models that project increases up to a full degree of anomolous surface warming in the next decade. This is an unprecedented amount of warming in the scope of historical climate models of the Earth.
Among the steps taken towards counteracting climate change and the rise in surface temperature anomaly, the Paris Climate Agreement in the winter of 2015 laid down the following mission:
(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.
This question targets humans' ability to curb climate change. Among the models mentioned earlier, there are some best-case scenarios which suppose significant involvement among the Paris Agreement nations to shift the weight of energy generation from fossil fuels to clean energy methods. Will the anomalous global surface temperature in 2020 be less than 1.0 °C above the 1951-1980 mean?
This question will resolve positive if data reported by NASA/GISS for the year 2020 represents less than a 1.0 °C rise in global surface warming from the 1950-1980 average.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.