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How much global warming by 2100?

At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) "well below 2 ˚C" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.

It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C. While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.

Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?

Data for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from NASA, if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.


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