689 forecasters

Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before May 16, 2024?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Apr 16, 2024

Closes:

May 15, 2024

Resolved:

May 16, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 19, 2024

Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024

Attacking Qatar shows Israel doesn’t want a Gaza ceasefire

Al Jazeera•Sep 14, 2025

Strike on Qatar shows limits of Israel’s elusive quest to vanquish Hamas

Associated Press•Sep 11, 2025

Doha strikes: Ramifications for hostages and for peace

CNN•Sep 10, 2025

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