🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election?

7
37
28 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 28

Make a Prediction

JurisdictionMe
ResolvedPennsylvania
40%
Arizona
6.7%
Colorado
0.1%
Florida
0.2%
Georgia
10.8%
Iowa
0.1%
Michigan
13.4%
Nevada
4.4%
North Carolina
5.9%
Ohio
0.1%
Texas
0.1%
Wisconsin
16.4%
Another outcome
1.7%
Total: ?
(? remaining)

Which of these actually happened?Pennsylvania

Community Baseline Score
54.6
Community Peer Score
41.0
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:

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