New PHEIC in 2024?

conditional

condition

Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?

Resolved:No

14 forecasters

if yes

if no

New PHEIC in 2024?

27%

Resolved:Annulled

New PHEIC in 2024?

Resolved:Yes

1 comment1

Make a Prediction

Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?	New PHEIC in 2024?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 9%

What was the final result? Yes

Community Baseline Score

-122.3

Community Peer Score

38.7

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Apr 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

7.4%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Apr 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

7.4%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%